I. Jonathan Drouin is not a 3rd overall pick.
Entropy, my dear reader, nothing lasts.
He was a 3rd overall pick in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft but that time has passed because eight years is too long. People reinvent themselves every seven years, some lifestyle business guru said that.
Drouin has had both on and off ice issues, he’s had injuries to the brain and the body, and he’s matured and grown into the player he is today. He has soft hands and a soft playing style, and he doesn’t stand out in any way other than the obvious: he’s got talent but doesn’t really apply it effectively.
When a player is drafted 3rd overall, there comes a certain hope and expectation that he’ll be a special player. One that can be relied on to win games and lead his team. Many fail to live up to that billing and Drouin just happens to be one of them.
II. Spilled Milk
We cannot cry over spilled milk but we mustn’t kneel down into the carpet and suck it up either. The milk is gone, Drouin’s potential will remain unfulfilled (if he ever had any).
The questions remaining:
Is he of any use or purpose to the Habs today or in the future?
Does any other team see any point in acquiring him?
What will his next NHL contract look like, if he will have one?
He has one season left after the current one and he is yet again on pace for 50-odd points. I think he’s in that Galchenyuk nether-zone where he’s skilled enough to play in the NHL but not good enough for any serious team to give him skill-player ice-time. He’s better than Galchenyuk but the difference is in degree not in kind.
They’re cut from the same cloth, so to speak.
III. Tackling the questions:
Is he of any use or purpose to the Habs today or in the future?
The Habs have too many wingers and none of them are particularly special. Drouin (26) is younger than Byron (32), Hoffman (32), Gallagher (29), Toffoli (29), Armia (28), and Anderson (27) so in that sense he can feature for another few years without any noticeable physical decline.
Drouin’s cap hit of 5.5 million accounts for 6.7% of the salary cap. After Gallagher (6.5 million, 8%) he is tied with Josh Anderson (5.5 million, 6.7%). It’s arguable but Gallagher’s c. 42 points in a season are as valuable as Drouin’s c. 54, while Anderson is injury prone enough that his large frame and speed do not make up for his c. 42 point pace.
Suffice to say they’re all underwhelming and over a fifth of the Habs’ cap space is dedicated to these three forward wingers.
I’d argue that his cap hit is too high, his competitors too numerous, and his playing style too one-dimensional to be useful for the Habs today or in the future.
Does any other team see any point in acquiring him?
I’m not convinced he is easily traded but if the Habs retain some cap hit - let’s say 2.5m - he is a value bargain for a middle-six luxury player . He’ll chip in a point every other game, let’s say 3 points in 7 games in the playoffs. This could be the edge a serious competitive team needs and at a (reduced) cap hit of 3m that seems like a bargain.
The acquiring team will have to play to his strengths, and have a robust enough depth to carry his defensive frailty. He will be inconsistent, he will be infuriating but he will chip in a point or so every other game.
Teams have given up a 1st round pick for lesser players. I’m not sure Drouin merits a first round pick from a playoff team but with half his salary retained maybe it’s possible.
Is it worth trading him? As above, yes. While the first round pick may amount to nothing Drouin is unnecessary for the Habs both as a playoff aspiring team (hah!) and as a rebuilding one, and with too many wingers as it is, he offers zero marginal value once the injury reserve players start to trickle back in.
Incidentally, I think he’ll be better and more productive once he’s relied upon less, but I digress.
What will his next NHL contract look like, if he will have one?
Oh boy, we can’t answer this one until we see how this season plays out and where he lands next year if not on the Habs.
If he takes a one year “show-me” contract he is liable to injure himself and end up out of favour. If he takes a two year deal, it will be as a lower cap hit than he has today. He simply doesn’t offer any reliable production. Prediction: his next cap hit will be no more than 4 million.
Is a 28 year old Drouin worth 4 million a year? Not to a serious team, and not to a rebuilding team — but maybe a team that can afford a luxury player on a short contract to help push them over the edge.
Maybe in the next 18 months Drouin shows something that encourages another NHL team to commit 5% of their cap to him (c. 4 million) but unless something massively changes in Drouin’s career trajectory, his next won’t be a long term contract.
IV. Prognosis
Habs fans need to relax. The Drouin-era is nearly over. Another disaster trade by Bergevin (who lost all his major trades, and his job because of it) will have its book closed.
The Habs aren’t face any long-term pain specifically because of Drouin, and for that we can be thankful.
Carey Price and Brendan Gallagher on the other hand, their contracts are going to hurt and hurt a lot. To be discussed next time.
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