Every few weeks I type the first part of a post on the Habs, I fire up excel and hockey-reference and make some sort of analysis to support a point I’d like to share… and then I shelve it. There are too many games and not enough substantial movement or changes to justify posting in-depth analysis.
But I cannot let the current situation slide. At around game 10 of the current 2023-2024 season there was a sudden crescendo of criticism of the Habs and of their sophomore forward Juraj Slafkovsky.
The Hockey News posted the now infamous video of Habs scout Nick Bobrov when he blustered and bloviated, referring to “hockey historians”, etc in praise of Slafkovsky. [link]
Craig Button, veteran NHL commentator had this to say
And almost immediately at the same time, the co-host of a popular hockey podcast alluded to Slafkovsky’s resemblance to an infamous, low-hockey-IQ 1OA bust Nail Yakupov
So the sudden change from next to no discussion to three consecutive high-profile hits at Slafkovsky and the Habs caused a tornado of commentary on otherwise barren lands.
Who is Juraj Slafkovsky?
1st overall pick of the 2022 NHL draft. That was the light at the end of the tunnel of the Habs’ record-setting awful 2021-2022 ‘playoff hangover’ season.
Approaching the 2022 NHL draft Slafkovsky was not my first, second, third, or fourth choice with the Habs’ 1OA pick… and that’s only because I was not familiar with other prospects who I’d prefer to him. His prospect profile was a single big red flag as far as I was concerned.
But that’s a story for a different time, the discussion today about who is he right now for the Habs in the NHL.
Let’s zoom to the present day, the 13th game of the 2023-2024 season, and what do we have when we compare Slafkovsky to the highest ranked forward of previous drafts?
Slafkovsky is only 13 games into his sophomore (2nd) NHL season, and had his rookie NHL season cut short at 39 games due to injury. I will model an other scenario below — yes, we know the sophomore season has just started.
With that said, he is the single worst producing draft pick of this cohort.
Nail Yakupov, the infamous bust who was widely smeared following his ignominious exit from the NHL, outproduced him by more than 100% or more than double.
Commentators say that the 2022 NHL Draft was spectacularly weak and it is unfair to expect Crosby, Ovechkin or McDavid from the 1OA. That’s fair enough, but can we compare him to any other player on the above list? Is Tavares too far? or Rick Nash? or Taylor Hall? or Nico Hischier for heaven’s sake?
You don’t dream of having Nico Hichiers on your team but even he is 2.8 times more productive than Slaf within this highlighted time period.
So it turns out: No, he’s not comparable to any them either. With a simple ratio of PlayerX/Slafkovsky I compared D+2 production rate between the Top Drafted Forward cohort. The results were miserable.
Slafkovsky remains the single worst producing Top Drafted Forward of the past 20+ years. Optimistic commentators claim this is not a matter of concern, and that we must not have 1OA expectations of Juraj Slafkovsky. Fine — fair enough.
Why is he in the NHL? Skill forwards in their sophomore season who are this underproductive do not play in the NHL.
Right now Slafkovsky has 2 points in 13 games (0.15ppg).
Proponents of Slaf in the NHL claim there is massive or exponential growth just around the corner. Let’s assume he doubles his scoring rate and scores 21pts in the remaining 69 games (0.3ppg)? He’d finish the season with 23pts in 82gp (0.28ppg) and he’d be… that’s right, dead-last amongst this cohort and behind even Lafrenière.
Assume he drinks a special potion and plays the remainder of the NHL season — 69 games — and scores 33 points to finish with 35pts in 82gp (0.46ppg). That is, if he trebles his current scoring rate. How would he fare against the cohort?
He’d still be dead-last but within distance of Jordan Staal and Alexis Lafrenière at least. One established his reputation has a strong two-way centreman and the other is widely referred to as a near-bust.
The Habs are in trouble territory and if this persists we will have an unprecedented in the modern period bust on our hands. If he is not comparable to 1OA, which it really does not seem to be the case, then the treatment of him is inexplicable — a player this underproductive should not be in the NHL.
The Habs are rapidly burning through Slafkovsky’s ELC and getting nothing worthwhile out of it. He’s not developing his game either. The Habs need a productive forward out of him and instead have someone fragile and confused. I would posit that a qualitative analysis of Slafkovsky-the-player would be a different undertaking than the above, shallow playing-around-with-data but it would reveal the same issues.
He is not an NHL player right now and if this persists, he will be out of the NHL before long.
Note on the blog: I typically spend quite a bit of time developing these pieces. This one above was completed more quickly. It has less formatting and fewer bells and whistles. I don’t think I can stick to any posting schedule but in lieu of not posting, I’d rather post these quick bites than nothing at all.
This smells like a saint-louis project. He's confident that he can develop this player in the NHL, but will his hubris bork our #1 draft pick?