The language of Winning and Losing Trades came around the time the Geoff Molson and Marc Bergevin Habs were losing (on the ice) and losing (viewers, ticket sales, fan interest). Prior to that, fans and reporters would talk about Good Trades and Bad Trades. Bob Gainey’s acquisition of Alexei Kovalev was a good trade, his later acquisition of Scott Gomez was a bad trade.
Importantly: this was irrespective of the results that followed, because nobody can predict the future and it isn’t fair to hold bad outcomes against a GM.
When Pierre Gauthier (“the GOATst”) traded Mike Cammalleri (+ others) for Rene Bourque (+ others) it was complicated by the circumstances of the trade but was generally regarded as a Bad Trade — Rene Bourque was having a terrible year and never broke 50 points, while Cammalleri was a former 80 point player in his prime and a recent playoff hero, albeit he was having a tough season himself.
So unless the trade is explicitly betting on futures and future alone — like trading primarily for prospects or picks — trade can only be Good or Bad, not Won or Lost. Because as we’ll see, two years after a trade, four years after a trade and six years after a trade can be analyzed to drastically different outcomes.
Winning and Losing Trades also has an unnecessary and incalculable competitive aspect — if Bergevin won a trade, does that mean his trade counterpart lost it? Why would a GM make a trade where he stands to lose as an outcome? It could be a bad gamble, a bad move, with bad scouting intelligence and bad analysis — but a losing trade? No, that’s not a thing. GMs aren’t hostile like that and it isn’t a zero-sum event.
What makes it extra complicated is if it is a multi-factor trade, or if another team gets involved. Even though Subban for Weber was the simplest possible trade (one for one with zero other considerations) both players suffered from significant injuries that put their careers in jeopardy. As of writing, Shea Weber is considered out on Very-LTIR and PK Subban has been playing through well-known back issues which have, supposedly, affected his skating and comfort on the ice.
So if we just ask “who is better off now?” then there will be one answer, but it won’t take into account the third team involved (New Jersey Devils) or the fact that the Predators’ window closed differently than that of the Habs… that is if the Habs ever did have an open window. The table below shows some raw, hard to fudge numbers. Player Points, Team Points, and playoff games (the closest playoff team stat to pure points).
I chose player points because both PK and Shea were topXX defenders at the time of their trades and their analytics would be marginally different and thus excessively reliant on external factors (partners, deployment, reliance goaltender, etc). Even if their analytics weren’t comparable: they were both 1Ds, studs, thoroughbreds, all-stars with mega caphits— so the question is simple: which team benefited more from the player? (aka “Won the trade”)
It’s important to not use points-per-game, an otherwise reliable and favourite stat of mine, because we’re looking at net effects and not abstracted ones. Which team benefited the most from the trade?
If we’re talking about Winning Trades (ie the impact of the trade on the results of the team) then let’s try seeing how it looks only when PK Subban is in Nashville and Shea Weber is in Montreal
So this must be why we only started hearing “Bergevin won the trade” around 2020 and onward and not before that.
What about at the moment of the trade? Well, it’s much closer:
Subban was the more productive player, the two teams were rather comparable with both teams winning one playoff round each in the preceding two years. It should be noted that in the season immediately before the trade, the Habs sputtered out midway through the season in egregious fashion and the Preds made it to Game 7 of the Second Round where Weber had one of the worst games of his career, in what turned out to be his last outlay in a Predator’s colours.
So at the moment of the trade, the Habs were the inferior team with the better, younger player. Since then, Weber and the Habs have had a terrible first three years — truly a lost trade if there was ever a lost trade. The following two years after that, Subban was a walking (talking) wounded-type whose productivity crated while Weber struggled with his overall decline and now is set to not play in the 2021-2022 season while Subban will putter along for one more year, his last of his contract, with the ascendant Devils.
Given that both the Habs and Devils are projected to struggle for a playoff spot, if Subban has even a c. 35 point season next year, and Weber doesn’t play, one could argue that both the Devils and Predators each got more out of Subban than the Habs did with all their investment in Shea Weber.
No matter how good his supposed aura really is, Shea Weber + the Habs was not a mutually beneficial relationship. The Habs struggled a lot in the “Shea Weber era”, Shea Weber struggled a lot too and declined rapidly. And the heights the Habs hit with Shea weber weren’t as high, or as long, as those of the Predators with Subban.
The 2021 Stanley Cup Finals loss was an exciting but momentary, and ultimately fruitless, diversion on our path to the grave.
The Habs lost the Subban Trade.