Weekly Roundup: There is nowhere to go but up
The Gorton-Hughes era has started but big questions and bigger question marks remain; on Toffoli trade; and other commentary
With the Montreal Canadiens starting off a new era, there hasn’t been much to analyse in recent weeks. All the flux has meant the entire frame of reference has changed. Hughes has no track record as a NHL executive and neither does his hand-picked new coach, and rookie to pro coaching, Martin St. Louis. So for the time being we can only observe and try to notice a trend or pattern.
I’ve decided to do a weekly roundup until the end of the season
The triumvirate of Gorton, Hughes, St Louis was bolstered recently by the addition of former NHL great Vincent Lecavalier as a ‘Special Advisor’ and Nick Bobrov as ‘co-director of Amateur Scouting’ where he splits responsibilities with BicepClub leftover Martin Lapointe.
There remain questions and question marks
Has Gorton just been hiring his buddies into a new foxhole? Three of the four new hires are not known commodities as NHL executives and Bobrov’s scouting track record with the NY Rangers hasn’t been exactly unimpeachable. (An analysis for another time, perhaps). They seem to be personal friends or acquaintances of Gorton or Hughes rather than the best possible candidates for the roles.
That said, I’m not sure if it’s fair to be critical of a new regime before they’ve had a chance to really make their mark. They’ve taken on literally the worst team in the NHL, there is nowhere to go but up.
On the other hand, it’s fair to say that the media and fans in Montreal gave too much leeway and blind faith in the early days of the Bergevin regime and that lead to bozo first year moves such as the hiring of Michel Therrien as head coach, Sly Lefebvre as AHL head coach, Larry Carriere’s unqualified son, the snubbing of Larry Robinson for assistant coach, the bizarre and hostile contract negotiations with PK Subban, and so on.
If the fans and media are going to be consistently critical and cold toward the new regime from the get-go, that’s fine and perhaps necessary.
Let them earn our faith, for once.
Rebuilding the Habs, brick by brick
Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette recently sat down with Kent Hughes and in that interview it was revealed that the Habs had no analytics department and no skills coaches.
How could a supposedly wealthy team have been neglecting their hockey operations so badly, for so long? Why didn’t anybody in the English or French media ever speak word of this — did they simply not know? We must have the most incompetant, useless, lazy, incurious journalists in the entire NHL.
So there’s nowhere to go but up — building a skills and development department is surely better than not having one; building an analytics department is surely better than not having one… perhaps these gains will be best realized down the line but they’ll be necessary to help push the Habs over the edge when that time comes.
What the Toffoli trade tells us
I’ve written before that “winning trades” is an ineffective way to analyze trades.
Winners can become losers over time, a draft pick who was tossed to balance a trade can become a massive player (or a total bust). Therefore the best way to process a trade is at the moment it’s done and with as much context as possible.
Toffoli was a productive player for the Habs, he has a good cap hit under 5m, he is in a prime age, he has good playoff experience, he was well-liked by all the teams he played for, and he liked Montreal a lot too. In short: he is a good player!
By moving a good player, Kent Hughes indicated to the NHL that (1) He’s open for business and (2) he doesn’t think the Habs will be “good” any time soon. He’s hinting at a rebuild if not outright screaming it.
Toffoli would become a wasted asset for the Habs if he wasn’t moved. The Habs won’t be outside of the basement this year and if Price is done/gone they will still be there next year too. What’s the point of hanging onto Toffoli, really?
I don’t think the return was maximized in terms of pure value but on the look of things it’ll be a c. 20-25th position 1st round pick and a former 2nd round pick who the Habs have scouted repeatedly.
Let’s see how the trade market shapes up before we grade this one.
Interesting theory about the Toffoli trade found on HFBoards Habs
User MarkovsKnee wrote
It seems more and more probable that Price might be done.
I think after the Price press conference Hughes said they'll know more about what direction to take the team in 2 weeks as they'll know a bit more about Price's rehab.
Yesterday was 2 weeks. They traded Toffoli.
Suzuki said today that the trading of Toffoli has sent the message to the team that Montreal is rebuilding.
I agree. Toffoli going means the rebuild is on.
You don't rebuild if you think Price is coming back. It's likely Allen and Montembeault are our goalies next year and Price is on LTIR.
The Toffoli trade means Montreal is in for a serious rebuild and not shy to shed good hockey players in the process. However…
Big problem is that LTIR is not a thing in the summer, but you are allowed to go over the cap by 10%, which means our maximum Off-season cap is: $89.65m.
Weber & Price will account for $18m of our Off-season cap, which is currently at $79.766m for 15 active players, so moving next season money (Toffoli) was imperative, as we wouldn't have had money to sign Romanov, Lehkonen, or players like Montembeault, Clague or Rem Pitlick if we wanted too.
Bergevin left an absolute cap mess. Toffoli went because we needed to move money, he got a good offer, was an easy move and it sends the message that, yes, this team is done, we're rebuilding.
Now, Hughes and Gorton need to convince Weber to retire this summer. A modest 4 year cap recapture of about $225,000 is nothing compared to $7.858m.
This was a mind-blowing realization. I’m not sure how Very-Long Term Injured Reserve is approached by the NHL but if the assertion holds true then Marc Bergevin will have left a big problem on the Hands of his successors for next season.
It's very clear that Bergy ran The Habs like a summer beer league team. Too bad the sychophant media were too busy fawning over his long hair and red suits to notice. Case in point Matt Pfeffer, who was hired as an analytics consultant at the beginning of the 2015-16 season then subsequently fired after he made an elaborate presentation to management to dissuade them from making the Subban-Weber deal. Only the worst of managers would rid an employee for the offence of not telling them what they want to hear. Good riddance to the bozo and good luck to the Gorton/Hughes team going forward. There will be pain at first. This team needed a complete restructuring.